Wednesday, December 23, 2009

TRAP FOR INVESTOR: P/E


P/E-based recommendations barrage individual investors in dalal Street research reports and investment newsletters. A parade of money managers and analysts appearing on television say things like, "At next year's estimated earnings per share of Rs 2 and a P/E of 15, our target price is 30 -- a 25% increase over the current price"

Growth-stock money managers search for companies with rapidly rising sales and earnings that trade at reasonable P/E multiples. Value investors look for quality companies that trade at low P/E multiples.

Relying on P/E numbers is a prescription for disappointing investment results because earnings snapshots company hasn't yet received cash and exclude cash outlays for assets that it expects to generate future revenue, can be significantly higher or lower than cash flows.

Investors ignore risk if they look at earnings alone. Technology stocks with highly uncertain prospects are current year that account for virtually all of a company's value are excluded. For instance, earnings represent only 5% of the share price for a stock trading at a 20 P/E multiple. Where do you turn when a company has Though most analysts acknowledge these shortcomings.

Buying shares just because the P/E ratio is less than the expected growth rate is shooting in the dark. There is no economically meaningful relationship between the P/E multiple with its arbitrarily calculated "E" and the earnings growth rate projected over an equally arbitrary short period

Furthermore, despite growing earnings, companies may destroy shareholder value if their investments earn a rate of return below the cost of capital. P/E and PEG yardsticks are shortcuts, all right, but unfortunately they are also investment cul-de-sacs.
Focusing on the P/E multiple without considering the cash flow/earnings ratio can yield a seriously misleading picture of the market's growth expectations

There is another way. Cash flow -- revenue less operating expenses excluding depreciation and amortization, less investment in working and fixed capital -- is a much better measure of a company's worth. Without cash flow to fund growth and pay dividends, a company's shares are worthless. A company's value reflects its long-term cash-flow prospects discounted by a rate of return that compensates investors for risk.

Estimating the highly uncertain drivers of future cash flows -- sales growth, operating margins and investments -- can be time-consuming and difficult, so the P/E multiple becomes a shortcut. Instead of comparing the stock price with its discounted cash-flow value, the P/E ratio compares price with an estimate of a company's earnings for the next year or the past year's reported earnings.
Among the cash-flow drivers, changes in sales-growth expectations typically have by far the greatest impact on stock price, so that's the most productive place to start the analysis. Sales-growth revisions not only affect value directly but also trigger changes in operating margins via economies of scale and the spreading of fixed costs over greater or lesser volume .
When analysts use P/E ratios as their valuation benchmark, they often do not make explicit the assumptions underlying their forecasts. It is ironic that at the very time investors demand greater transparency in corporate financial reporting, they continue to tolerate opaque stock research reports.

Monday, September 7, 2009

22 HUMAN BAISES

I believe to be the most important 22 human biases under each category:

Self-deception:
  • Over optimism: People overestimate their ability. The classic behavioural example is when members of a random group are asked if they are above, below, or average drivers. The results invariably reveal a majority of above-average drivers, a statistical impossibility.
  • Overconfidence: People feel more confident than they should. Men exhibit this trait more than women. Studies have shown greater hubris in men leads to excessive turnover and underperformance in investing. Complicating this, behavioural experiments have shown that the more (and often irrelevant) information we accumulate, the more confident we become.
  • Self-attribution: People credit their skill for good outcomes and blame bad luck for bad outcomes.
  • Hindsight: People forget or overlook what they knew and when they knew it. This is also called “success at correctly predicting the past.”

Simplification

  • Anchoring: People grasp non-relevant information, often believing they are making better decisions. Montier gives the classic example of this as the experiment by Nobel laureates, Amos Tversky and Daniel Kahneman, using a rigged wheel similar to roulette, but one which always stops at either 10 or 65.3 Two groups asked the same percentage-based question responded differently depending on which number they saw after spinning the wheel.
  • Representativeness: People judge by appearance rather than likelihood. As Montier points out, people like a good story rather than hard facts, and if numbers are involved, people are often quite bored.4
  • Framing: People can give different answers depending on the same, but differently framed questions.
  • Loss aversion: People typically give more weight to losses than to corresponding gains.

Emotional

  • Regret theory: The fear of being wrong may outweigh the cost in objective economic terms, and lead individuals or groups to non-optimal conclusions.

Social Interaction

  • Herding: Neurologists have found that real pain and social pain are felt in the same part of the brain. Contrarian strategies are the investment equivalent of seeking out social pain.
  • Cascading: People’s actions can be totally independent of their own information and totally dependent on their observation of others’ actions or words.

“Seven Sins” of money management

  • The brain is hardwired to like short-term gratification (leading to quick and easy decisions).
  • We tend to dislike social-exclusion behaviour (leading to herd-like decisions).
  • Overall, despite our hopes/beliefs that we are logical decision makers, these innate tendencies often cause less-than-rational decisions.

“Seven Sins” of money management:

  1. Enormous evidence shows investors are hopeless at forecasting, yet it may be at the heart of their investment process.
  2. Investors are obsessed with information, yet more information doesn’t lead to better decisions, just overconfidence.
  3. Meetings with company management are overrated; management themselves are likely highly biased.
  4. Investors typically think they can outsmart everyone else.
  5. Investors are (increasingly) obsessed with short-term time horizons.
  6. People like good stories and often enhance them to suit their own biases, while ignoring the boring facts.
  7. The mind’s default tendency is to believe; innate scepticism is rare, yet advantageous in investing.

Tuesday, May 19, 2009

BULLs /BEARs : SAME MISTAKE

Hi,
Today i am going to share my mistakes which i am doing years after year only persuading myself with different logic but when i think back and think finds same
reasons and same mistake.i think everybody does the same its psychology of human being.
  1. Makes opinion about market: BULLISH/ BEARISH / SIDE WAYS all by listening to so called expert on TV , rumour, same self logic.I too had done same was waiting waiting.let me tell you waiting is one of must quality you should have to successful investor BUT waiting with opinion/perception in mind about market direction is common MISTAKE.
  2. when you find your stock and its Margin of safety (MOS) then buy in lot. its OK but where i failed is my mind was not ready to buy 5-10% higher price that of my earlier price since i had opinion/ perception about market that it will come down, some cases i came down too but then i was waiting more to go down.i spite i was ready to pay more that because of its MOS. BE READY TO BUY 5-10% up / down to initial purchase price when you have MOS.Don't stick to initial purchase price.
  3. Only think about VALUE and MOS don't take your decisions / or postpone on basis of market direction.
  4. Buy good company on bad news which is other than business: I done same for lifetime. But got trapped in stayam on 17 Jan 2009 the mistake made by me i brought old Matyas bad news without knowing what was bad news on that day.This hangover carried on me for long time again i made mistake of inaction and didn't brought Asian paint on bad news of share pledging at Rs 680,DLF,BHATRI on promoter stake sale DLF at 114 / Bhati at 484. from this i learned lesson BUY GOOD COMPANY ON BAD NEWS but you should know the bad news before buying single share.
  5. Value is king weather market VALUE it OR NOT: when ever you find a company with cheap valuation and MOS just think of what can go wrong and finds answer not so pessimistic and go and buy don't think about market valuing it or not.

last 7 years i had done same above mistake irrelevant of market is bullish or bearish.Always control yourself from excessive may it Bullish NOV 2007 to Jan 2008 OR excessive bearish OCT 2008 to MARCH 2009. This what called as RATIONAL THINKING .

experts

Tuesday, May 5, 2009

Charlie Mungers 19 Models

Charlie mungers 19 mental models:

Model 1 : Mathematics (Probability ,Decision Trees,Law of Large Numbers,Compound Interest, Present Value)
Model 2: Accounting
Model 3: Legal system
Model 4: The Five W’s (who, what, when, where, and why and "Invert, always invert.")
Model 5: Basic Statistics (
Mean ,Median,Regression to the Mean, Std Deviation & Normal Distribution)
Model 6: The Engineering Idea of Backups
Model 7: The Engineering Idea of Breakpoints
Model 8: Physics (
Equilibrium Theory,Critical Mass,)
Model 9: Know your Cognitive Limits
Model 10: Microeconomics
Model 11: Advantages/Disadvantages of Scale
Model 12: Pavlovian Association (Classic and Instrumental Conditioning)
Model 13: Competitive Destruction
Model 14: Surfing
Model 15: Stock Market is like a Pari-Mutuel System
Model 16: Social Proof/ Psychology of Investing (Availability Bias,Representativenes ,Anchoring, Excessive Optimism,Overconfidence, llusion of Validity, First Conclusion bias, Hindsight Bias, Loss Aversion and Loss Realization, Mental Accounting and Risk Tolerance, Regret Complex)
Model 17: Chemistry (Autoctalyst)
Model 18: Biology
Model 19: Lollapalooza Effects

ALL models we will discuss in deatilsnext post

Investing Principals


The Six Principles of Investing

I. Develop a comfortable understanding of the language of business (accounting) and understand the basic investing concepts.
- Study a basic accounting book such as The Interpretation of Financial Statements by Benjamin Graham
- Understand four key investing concepts:
- Compound Interest
- Present/Future Value
- Inflation
- The difference between price and value
- Learn how cash flows through the businesses you are examining
- Learn how companies successfully manage inventory
- Keep a close eye on how fast inventory and accounts receivables are growing. They should not be growing faster than the business’s overall sales growth rate.
II. Purchase High-Quality Companies Selling Below Intrinsic Value
- Look for companies selling below intrinsic value (Margin of Safety)
- Look for a trustworthy, shareholder-oriented, high-quality management team
- Make sure the business has sustainable competitive advantages
- Make sure management makes rational capital allocation decisions
III. Portfolio Concentration
- 10 to 12 stocks allows adequate diversification against company-specific risk
- Over-diversified portfolios will tend to track the performance of the overall stock market
- Make large, concentrated purchases when the perfect opportunity presents itself
IV. Minimize Portfolio Turnover
- Minimizing portfolio turnover will keep the amount of trading commissions and taxes paid at a minimum
V. Understand the Psychology of Investing
- Understand how market and stock volatility affect investment decisions
- Patience and intestinal fortitude are requirements when investing
- Stand by your convictions
- Understand how rules of thumb can affect investment decisions
- Practice delayed gratification
VI. Build a Latticework of Models
- Develop a framework of "mental models" from various disciplines to gain a better understanding of the investment process
- Be able to combine multiple models when making investment decisions

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

Bad Investing Habits

There are some investing habits that investors need to guard against.
1) Short-term thinking:-

This happens when attention is focussed on quarterly results - both of the corporates and money managers. Once investors came to expect good short-term results, the managers had to deliver it, or risk losing a significant share of their business. In this way we created a short-term mentality - widespread, insidious, and selfperpetuating.
2) Infatuation with speculation:-
This mad rush to produce the highest return in the shortest period of time has dramatically changed the investment landscape. In fact, we now have a nasty kind of double whammy: To beat out the competition, money managers are under extra pressure to make decisions faster, but since fast decisions are not necessarily good decisions, the quarterly race is even more precarious. The focus on the short term has created a climate that favors speculation rather than investing, and individuals are as susceptible to it as the professional money managers. peculation is the activity of forecasting the psychology of the market.
3) Mental shortcuts:-
Popular metrics, however flawed, are used to simplify a complex process. Choosing which securities to buy, which to sell, and when to do either can be incredibly complex - so complex that individuals try to simplify the process by settling on shortcut methods for making stock decisions. They establish some numeric threshold for that factor,and take action only when a stock trips against it. Some of the more popular single- factor metrics are price to book value,dividend yields and price-to-earnings ratios. Other single-factor models have come into favor and gone out again over the years.It hardly matters what the metric is, for the fundamental flaw remains the same: When the universe is complex (and here I mean all the forces that affect companies and drive the market),using a single factor as the decision point severely understates reality and cripples the ability to make good decisions.
4) Race for information:-
This come about as a result of trying to predict short-term results with a view to capturing an earnings surprise. Any professional investor who could gain access to the quarterly results before they were released to the pubic could turn a nice profit buying or selling shares in advance of this surprise. The trick, then, became how to get hold of company information early. So enterprising investment professionals requested private conference calls and one-on-one meetings with company management, ahead of reporting time.
5) Overload of information:-
The Internet makes information just a click away. It thus calls for connect interpretation and analysis of data.
6) Reliance on tainted objectivity:-

Brokerage reports are made with an objective of getting trades. There are practically no sources of objective analysis.
7) Emotional potholes:-

Behavioral finance experts have argued convincingly that various psychological missteps - including overconfidence, overreaction, bias, loss aversion and mental accounting - often lead investors to make foolish mistakes that can have adverse effects on their portfolios. Today, the study of psychology is every bit as important to investing as the study of balance sheets and income statements.

Warren Buffett Secrets

  • Don’t think about the stockmarket

"We look at individual businesses and we don’t think of stocks as little items that wiggle around in the paper. We think of them as parts of businesses."
"Your goal as an investor should be simply to purchase, at a rational price, a part interest in an easily understandable business whose earnings are virtually certain to be materially higher, five, ten, and twenty years from now".

Businesses that you understand

When you do this, you become a more a more savvy investor, better able to judge the progress of the company.

Strong economic moat

Look for companies that have a protection against their competitors. This could be geographical, patents, brand name, entry costs, and so on. When companies have a strong economic moat, then financial forecasts can be more reliable.

Return on equity

If you think of equity as your money, then return on equity is a measure of how well management is doing with your money. It is virtually impossible for a medium to long- term investment to be satisfactory if the return on equity is low. I look for companies that have 15 percent or more return on equity and return on capital.

Sales and earnings growth

You can still get good returns from companies that have poor growth figures if they pay out most of their earnings as dividends or use them for share buybacks. Nevertheless, at least a reasonable level of growth is often important for the management and employees to have a sense of achievement since this translates into higher productivity and less unrest. Apart from growth of earnings, I also look for companies with a high stability in the way they grow.

Not too much debt

If debt is too high, then the company is vulnerable to credit squeezes and may have difficulty in raising money for expansion. Look at the debt to equity ratio, the current ratio and the quick ratio.

The following quote is a good way to end this brief look at the investing methods of Warren Buffett:


We're not pure economic creatures, and that policy penalizes our results somewhat, but we prefer to operate that way in life. What's the point of becoming rich if you're going to have a pattern of operations where you continually discard associations with people you like, admire, and find interesting in order to earn a slightly bigger figure?



Tuesday, April 28, 2009

Fooling yourself -Investing Tragedy

In August 2007, Mary Meeker, Morgan Stanley’s famous internet analyst published a bullish report on Google. Google had just announced that its video website, You Tube, would soon begin displaying video ads. In her report, Mary initially projected that You-Tube’s video ads would result in incremental revenues of $720 million next year. But, while doing the number-crunching for her report, Mary made a serious mistake. She took the price of the ads as ‘$20 CPM’ to mean price per ad impression, and not per thousand ad impressions, which is what ‘CPM’ means. In other words, she overstated projected revenues by a factor of 1,000. The actual projected incremental revenues, based on Mary’s corrected model were only $720,000, an insignificant number when compared with Google’s total revenues.

What’s interesting for us, however, is to observe what happened next. When Henry Blodget, another famous internet stock analyst, pointed out Mary’s mistake on a public forum, she acknowledged her error.

However, instead of revising her overoptimistic conclusions, Mary left them intact! She rationalized them by revising yet another assumption in her model which resulted in much higher projected revenues for Google than would have been the case, had she not made this second revision. In her report update, Mary wrote: “In fixing the error, we also took the opportunity to dig deeper into our assumptions and.... we provide an updated scenario analysis of the opportunity.” Mary Meeker’s response was not quite contrary to what most of us do, when we are presented with evidence which proves that our previous conclusions may be wrong. When we face such situations, our first reaction, almost always, is to discredit the new piece of evidence which proves us wrong. If we can’t do that, for example when the evidence is solid, we tend to invent other, new reasons which would keep our prior conclusions intact.

The above example shows that we are capable of going to extremes in order to fool ourselves into believing that we’re right about things about which we are really wrong. Contrary to the belief of most economic theorists, we’re really not rational animals. Rather, we are rationalizing ones. There are obvious lessons here for the readers.

Take the idea behind what is called as the ‘sunk-cost fallacy’. We’re obsessed with what it cost us to buy an investment. The cost of our investment is not just a financial commitment made by us - it’s also an emotional decision about ourselves. We like to think we were right. If the price of a stock moves up after we buy it, we take it as evidence of our intelligence and investing skills.

However, if it falls well below our cost, we tend to overlook negative developments about the company which we learn subsequent to our purchase, information, for example, by deluding ourselves into believing that the adversity our company is facing is only of a short-term nature, and that its only a matter of time when our stock will soar.
We consciously ignore other alternative investment opportunities that become available to us, because we don’t want to buy them from cash realised from the sale of a dud investment. We fear that if we sell, we will suffer a loss, not realising that the loss happened the day we made the wrong decision. We forget a fundamentally sound economic principle that, with a few exceptions, sunk costs i.e. what it cost us to buy a stock, are irrelevant in the sell decision

Question is when to sell I feel you have follow one principle for sell decision which is

Mentally liquidating your portfolio into cash and then re-creating it is the best way to judge if you have made a bad decision



Friday, April 24, 2009

Charlie Munger's Speaks(Rare trascript)

CHARLIE MUNGER IS MAN WHO DROVE BUFFET FROM CIGAR BUTT INVESTING APPROCH TO VALUE INVESTING


safest way to get what you want is to deserve what you want.


deliver to the world what you would buy if you were on the other end.there is huge pleasure in life to be obtained from getting deserved trust. and the way to get it is to deliver what you would want to buy if the circumstances were reversed.there s no love that s so right as admiration based love and that love should include the instructive dead.
wisdom acquisition is a moral duty. it s not something you do just to advance in life. as a corollary to that proposition which is very important, it means that you are hooked for lifetime learning. and without lifetime learning, you people
are not going to do very well. you are not going to get very far in life based on what you already know. you re going to advance in life by what you learn after you leave here.
i constantly see people rise in life who are not the smartest, sometimes not even the most diligent, but they are learning machines. they go to bed every night a little wiser than they were when they got up and boy does that help, particularly when you have a long run ahead of you.so if civilization can progress only with an advanced method of invention, you can progress only when you learn the method of learning.nothing has served me better in my long life than continuous learning.i went through life constantly practicing (because if you don t practice it, you lose it) the multi-disciplinary approach and i can t tell you what that s done for me. it s made life more fun, it s made me more constructive, its made me more helpful to others, its made me enormously rich. you name it, that attitude really helps. now, there are dangers in it because it works so well that if you do it,you will frequently find you re sitting in the presence of some other expert, maybe even an expert superior to you (supervising you), and you ll know more than he does about his own specialty, a lot more. you ll see the correct answer and he s missed it. that is a very dangerous position to be in. you can cause enormous offense by being right in a way that causes somebody else to lose face. and i never found a perfect way to solve that problem. my advice to you is to learn sometimes to keep your light under a bushel.
marcus cicero is famous for saying that the man who doesn t know what happened before he was born goes through life like a child. that is a very correct idea. if you generalize cicero, as i think one should, there are all these other things that you should know in addition to history. and those other things are the big ideas in all the other disciplines. it doesn t help just to know them enough so you can [repeat] them back on an exam and get an a. you have to learn these things in such a way that they re in a mental latticework in your head and you automatically use them for the rest of your life. if you do that i solemnly promise you that one day you ll be walking down the street and you ll look to your right and left and you ll think my heavenly days, i m now one of the of the few most competent people in my whole age cohort. if you don t do it, many of the brightest of you will live in the middle ranks or in the shallows.
the way complex adaptive systems work and the way mental constructs work is that problems frequently get easier, i d even say usually are easier to solve if you turn them around in reverse. in other words, if you want to help india, the question you should ask is not how can i help india , it s what is doing the worst damage in india? what will automatically do the worst damage and how do i avoid it?
in life, unless you re more gifted than einstein, inversion will help you solve problems.
let me use a little inversion now. what will really fail in life? what do you want to avoid? such an easy answer: sloth and unreliability. if you re unreliable it doesn t matter what your virtues are. doing what you have faithfully engaged to do should be an automatic part of your conduct. you want to avoid sloth and unreliability.another thing i think should be avoided is extremely intense ideology because itcabbages up one s mind. you see it a lot with t.v. preachers (many have minds made of cabbage) but it can also happen with political ideology. when you re young it s easy to drift into loyalties and when you announce that you re a loyal member and you start shouting the orthodox ideology out, what you re doing is pounding it in, pounding it in, and you re gradually ruining your mind. so you want to be very, very careful of this ideology. it s a big danger. in my mind, i have a little example i use whenever i think about ideology. the example is these scandinavia canoeists who succeeded in taming all the rapids of scandinavia and they thought they would tackle the whirlpools of the aron (sp) rapids here in the united states. the death rate was 100%. a big whirlpool is not something you want to go into, and i think the same is true about a really deep ideology. i have what i call an iron prescription that helps me keep sane when i naturally drift toward preferring one ideology over another and that is: i say that i m not entitled to have an opinion on this subject unless i can state the arguments against my position better than the people who support it. i think only when i ve reached that state am i qualified to speak. this business of not drifting into extreme ideology is a very, very important thing in life.

another thing that does one in, of course, is the self-serving bias to which we re all subject. you think the true little me is entitled to do what it wants to do.and, for instance, why shouldn t the true little me overspend my income. mozart �
became the most famous composer in the world but was utterly miserable most of the time, and one of the reasons was because he always overspent his income. if mozart can t get by with this kind of asinine conduct, i don t think you should try.

generally speaking, envy, resentment, revenge and self-pity are disastrous modes of thoughts. self-pity gets fairly close to paranoia, and paranoia is one of the very hardest things to reverse. you do not want to drift into self-pity. it s a ridiculous way to behave and when you avoid it, you get a great advantage over everybody else or almost everybody else because self-pity is a standard condition, and yet you can train yourself out of it.of course the self-serving bias is something you want to get out of yourself. thinking that what s good for you is good for the wider civilization and rationalizing all these ridiculous conclusions based on this subconscious tendencyto serve one s self is a terribly inaccurate way to think. of course you want to drive that out of yourself because you want to be wise, not foolish. you also have to allow for the self-serving bias of everybody else because most people are not going to remove it all that successfully, the human condition being what it is. if you don t allow for self-serving bias in your conduct, again you re a fool.

the correct answer to situations like [the saloman case] was given by ben franklin, if you would persuade, appeal to interest not to reason.another thing, perverse incentives. you do not want to be in a perverse incentive system that s causing you to behave more and more foolishly or worse and worse -incentives are too powerful a control over human cognition or human behavior. if you re in one, i don t have a solution for you. you ll have to figure it out for yourself, but it s a significant problem.

perverse associations, also to be avoided. you particularly want to avoid working under somebody you really don t admire and don t want to be like. we re all subject to control to some extent by authority figures, particularly authority
figures that are rewarding us. getting to work under people we admire requires some talent. the way i solved that is i figured out the people i did admire and i maneuvered cleverly without criticizing anybody so i was working entirely under people i admired. you re outcome in life will be way more satisfactory and way better if you work under people you really admire. the alternative is not a good idea.

objectivity maintenance. darwin paid particular attention to disconfirming evidence. objectivity maintenance routines are totally required in life if you re going to be a great thinker. there, we're talking about darwin s special attention to disconfirming evidence and also about checklist routines. checklist routines avoid a lot of errors. you should have all this elementary wisdom and then you should go through a mental checklist in order to use it. there is no other procedure in the world that will work as well.

the last idea that i found very important is that i realized very early that nonegality would work better in the parts of the world that i wanted to inhabit. what do i mean by non-egality? i mean john wooden when he was the number one Basketball coach in the world. he just said to the bottom five players that you don t get to play. the top seven did all the playing. well the top seven learned more, remember the learning machine, they learned more because they did all the playing. and when he got to that system he won more than he had ever won before. i think the game of life, in many respects, is about getting a lot of practice into the hands of the people that have the most aptitude to learn and the most tendency to be learning machines. and if you want the very highest reaches of human civilization, that s
where you have to go. you do not want to choose a brain surgeon for your child from 50 applicants where all of them just take turns doing the procedure. you don t want your airplanes designed that way. you don t want your berkshire �hathaway s run that way. you want to get the power into the right people. [told the story of max planck and his chauffeur. after winning the nobel prize, planck toured around giving a speech. the chauffeur memorized the speech and asked if he could give it for him, pretending to be planck, in munich and planck would pretend to be the chauffeur. planck let him do it and after the speech someone asked a tough question. the real chauffeur said that he couldn t believe someone in such an advanced city like munich would ask such an elementary question and as such, he was going to ask his chauffeur (planck) to reply].
in this world we have two kinds of knowledge. one is planck knowledge, the people who really know. they ve paid the dues, they have the aptitude. and then we ve got chauffeur knowledge. they have learned the talk. they may have a big head of hair,they may have fine temper in the voice, they ll make a hell of an impression. but in the end, all they have is chauffeur knowledge. i think i ve just described practically every politician in the united states.and you are going to have the problem in your life of getting the responsibility into the people with the planck knowledge [and away from the people with the chauffeur knowledge]. and there are huge forces working against you. my generation has failed you a bit ..but you wouldn t like it to be too easy now would you? another thing that i found is that an intense interest in the subject is indispensable if you re really going to excel in it. i could force myself to be fairly good in a lot of things but i couldn t be really good at anything where i didn t have an intense interest. so to some extent, you re going to have to follow me. if at all feasible, drift into something where you have an intense interest.another thing you have to do, of course, is to have a lot of assiduity. i like that word because it means: sit down on your ass until you do it. two partners that i chose for one little phase in my life had the following rule when they created a design, build, construction team. they sat down and said, two-man partnership, divide everything equally, here s the rule: if ever we re behind in commitments to other people, we will both work 14 hours a day until we re caught up. needless to say, that firm didn t fail. the people died very rich. it s such a simple idea.
another thing, of course, is that life will have terrible blows in it, horrible blows, unfair blows. and some people recover and others don t. and there i think the attitude of epectitus is the best. he said that every missed chance in life was an opportunity to behave well, every missed chance in life was an opportunity to learn something, and that your duty was not to be submerged in self-pity, but to utilize the terrible blow in constructive fashion. that is a very good idea.
you may remember the epitaph which epectitus left for himself: here lies epectitus, a slave maimed in body, the ultimate in poverty, and the favored of the gods.
i ve got a final little idea because i m all for prudence as well as opportunism. [he talked about his grandfather, judge munger, who under spent his income all his life and left his grandmother in comfortable circumstances, which he had to because there were no pensions for federal judges back then. along the way, he bailed out charlie s uncle s bank back in the 30s by taking over 1/3 of his good assets in exchange for bad assets of the bank. he remembered his grandfather s example in college when he came across] housman s poem:
the thoughts of others
were light and fleeting,
of lovers meeting
or luck or fame.
mine were of trouble,
and mine were steady,
so i was ready
when trouble came.
you can say, who wants to go through life anticipating trouble? well i did. all my life i ve gone through life anticipating trouble. and here i am, going along in my 84th year and like epectitus, i ve had a favored life. it didn t make me Unhappy to anticipate trouble all the time and be ready to perform adequately if trouble came. it didn t hurt me at all. in fact it helped me.
the last idea i want to give to you ..is that this is not the highest form that a civilization can reach. the highest form a civilization can reach is a seamless web of deserved trust. not much procedure, just totally reliable people correctly
trusting one another. that s the way an operating room works at the mayo clinic. so never forget, when you re a lawyer, that you may be rewarded for selling this stuff but you don t have to buy. what you want in your own life is a seamless web of deserved trust. and so if your proposed marriage contract has 47 pages, my suggestion is you not enter.well that s enough for one graduation. i hope these ruminations of an old man are useful to you. in the end i m like an old valiant for truth and pilgrim s progress. my sword i leave to him who can wear it.

Warren buffet speaks

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A Discussion of Mr. Warren Buffett with Dr. George Athanassakos and Ivey MBA and HBA students Omaha, NB, March 31, 2008, 10:00 am - 12:00 pm

Question: How can you make money without investing a lot of money? Is it hard to raise money?


Buffett:

Yes, well I didn’t raise money. I bought my first stock when I was 11. I bought 3 shares of Citi Service Preferred. I spent 5 years saving $120 bucks. I saved money from when I was 6 until I was 11 and by that time I had enough money to buy 3 shares of a stock. I read many books about investing by that point. And I kept buying and selling stocks. I wasn’t anchored in any philosophy, for example there was a famous book by Edwards and McGee on technical analysis. I was very interested by the statistics in that book. I thought about many different ways of investing. By the time I was out of school at 20 years old I had made and saved $9,800 dollars. The first stock I bought where I invested heavily (I had invested three quarters of my net worth) is a stock now called Geico. I got very excited about that company. I just kept looking and I didn’t worry (I was always having fun - even now). You can have fun working with small sums or big sums - I like playing the game. I didn’t have to get rich in order to have a better life or for my kids to have a better life. In 1954 I went to work for Benjamin Graham. In 1956 I came back and had about $175,000, at that time I though it was enough to live the rest of my life. About 2 months after I got back my 7 investors were not happy. They would not trust the gut instinct of someone as young as I. What does a 21 year old know about managing money?
It was an inhibiting factor for people to know what they own. I said to these 7 people we would form a partnership and the money would flow in the exact same way except they wouldn’t know what they owned. I would treat the money as if it were my own. I wouldn’t get paid unless they did well. That’s the form I elected. And then I thought that was the end of it. And then people started coming along. By 1961 I had 11 partnerships. I had no employees and worked out of my bedroom. I wrote all the cheques so every
time I would buy a stock I would have to write 11 cheques to split it up into 11. I had to file 11 tax returns. In 1962 we started the company. That is the history of it. But the history is not of a master plan. The history is doing what you like to do every day and figuring out if people want to do it with you, what is the most logical way to do it. And that is the way we run Berkshire Hathaway. Berkshire Hathaway is run as a partnership.
What can I possibly do with billions and billions of dollars? I don’t see the fuss in having 6 houses with greenskeepers; I don’t see the fuss in having 20 cars in the garage. If you think about it you are living better than John D. Rockefeller. If you want to watch the Super Bowl you just turn on the TV and watch it. If he wanted to see the World Series it would take him a long time to get there, and he would not have air conditioning and that type of thing. The problem is not getting rich, but finding a game you enjoy and living a normal life. The most important thing is finding the right spouse. If you make the wrong decision on that you will regret it, there is a lot of pain involved, but if you have the right spouse it is just wonderful. What qualities do you look for in a spouse? Humour, looks, character, brains, or just someone with low expectations. The most important decision that you will make is that. If you make that one decision right I will guarantee you a good result in life.
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Thursday, April 23, 2009

Value investing quotes from Legends

• Growth can destroy value if it requires cash inputs in the early years of a project or enterprise that exceed the discounted value of the cash that those assets will generate in later years... those who glibly refer to "growth" and "value" styles as contrasting approaches to investment are displaying their ignorance. Growth is simply a component-usually a plus, sometimes a minus-in the value equation." - Warren Buffett

• One of the ironies of the stock market is the emphasis on activity. Brokers, using terms such as ‘marketability’ and ‘liquidity,’ sing the praises of companies with high share turnover, but investors should understand that what is good for the croupier is not good for the customer. A hyperactive stock market is the pick pocket of enterprise." - Warren Buffett

• It is no difficult trick to bring a great deal of energy, study, and native ability into Wall Street and to end up with losses instead of profits. These virtues, if channeled in the wrong directions, become indistinguishable from handicaps." - Benjamin Graham

• Absent a lot of surprises, stocks are relatively predictable over twenty years. As to whether they're going to be higher or lower in two to three years, you might as well flip a coin to decide." - Peter Lynch

• We all are learning, modifying, or destroying ideas all the time. Rapid destruction of your ideas when the time is right is one of the most valuable qualities you can acquire. You must force yourself to consider arguments on the other side" - Charlie Munger

• The future is never clear, and you pay a very high price in the stock market for a cheery consensus. Uncertainty is the friend of the buyer of long-term values." -
Warren Buffett

• Bargains are the holy grail of the true stockpicker. The fact the 10 to 30 percent of our net worth is lost in a market sell-off is of little consequence. We see the latest correction not as a disaster but as an opportunity to acquire more shares at low prices. This is how great fortunes are made over time." -
Peter Lynch

• Spend at least as much time researching a stock as you would choosing a refrigerator." -
Peter Lynch

• Being early on the way down looks a great deal like being wrong, but it isn’t. It turns out you won’t be able to accurately tell who’s been swimming naked until after the tide comes back in." -
Seth Klarman

• Abnormally good or abnormally bad conditions do not last forever. This is true not only of general business but of particular industries as well. Corrective forces are often set in motion which tend to restore profits where they have disappeared, or to reduce them where they are excessive in relation to capital." - Benjamin Graham

• I think you have to learn that there’s a company behind every stock, and that there’s only one real reason why stocks go up. Companies go from doing poorly to doing well or small companies grow to large companies." - Peter Lynch

• The individual investor should act consistently as an investor and not as a speculator. This means that he should be able to justify every purchase he makes and each price he pays by impersonal, objective reasoning that satisfies him that he is getting more than his money's worth for his purchase." - Benjamin Graham

• I paraphrase Lord Rothschild: ‘The time to buy is when there’s blood on the streets'." -
David Dreman

• If investing is entertaining, if you're having fun, you're probably not making any money. Good investing is boring" -
George Soros

• "Of one thing be certain: if a CEO is enthused about a particularly foolish acquisition, both his internal staff and his outside advisors will come up with whatever projections are needed to justify his stance. Only in fairy tales are emperors told that they are naked" -
Warren Buffett

• "The best assets you can have during inflation are your abilities." - Warren Buffett

Cash Flow Linkege to Balance Sheet

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The income statement, by virtue of employing the accrual method of accounting, has by definition the limitation of not being able to show exactly what is happening to a company’s cash flows for that specific accounting period. Accordingly, the cash flow statement has been created for the purpose of being able to trace the company’s cash flows and their sources/uses.

The Cash Flow from Operating Activities section tracks cash generated in the course of a company’s day-to-day operations:

1. Under the indirect method, used by most companies, adjustments are made to reconcile net income to cash flows from operations.

2. Decreases in assets and increases in liabilities and shareholders’ equity have a positive cash flow impact.

3 . Increases in assets and decreases in liabilities and shareholders’ equity have a negative cash flow impact.

  • The Cash Flow from Investing Activities section tracks additions and reductions to fixed assets and monetary investments.
  • The Cash Flow from Financing Activities section tracks changes in the company’s sources of debt and equity financing.
  • The change in cash reflected on the cash flow statement must always equal the change in cash reported on the balance sheet between two periods.

7 HABITS FOR FINANCIAL ANALYSIS

  • --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Habit #1 - Read the Annual and quertery Reports Before the Earnings Season Starts
At a minimum, read and review these 10-K sections:
1. Business Overview
2. Industry Overview and Competition
3. Management’s Discussion and Analysis (MD&A) of the Period Covered
4. Cash Flow Statement
5. Balance Sheet
6. Income Statement
7. Footnotes to the Financial Statements
8. And last, but most important, Key Risk Factors

Habit #2 - Maintain Spreadsheets of Historical Company Financial Statements
Habit #3 - '
Never Assume That Increased Revenue & Net Income Mean That a Company Is MakingMore Money
Habit #4 -
Always Review the Cash Flow Statement First
Habit #5 -
Review the Balance Sheet in Terms of Ruppes and % of Total Assets
Habit #6 - Review the Income Statement Items Both in Terms of Dollars and as a % of Total Revenues
Habit #7 -
Read the Company’s Earnings Release

Always read the footnotes to financial statements. A majority of the truth of the company’s health is buried here; the numbers alone rarely tell the full story. Take time to review and ask questions regarding any vague statements. ..... Mahesh Hamne
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investment checklist

Tips to Applying Behavioral Finance
• Be humble
– Diversify
– Minimize trading
– Admit and learn from mistakes – but learn the right lessons and don’t obsess
• Sell your mistakes and move on; you don’t have to make it back the same way
you lost it
• But be careful of panicking and selling at the bottom
• Don’t get fooled by randomness; profit from regression to the mean
• Be patient
– Don’t watch the screen (a watched stock never rises)
– Tune out the noise
– Make sure time is on your side (stocks vs. options; no leverage)
• Have written checklists; e.g., my four questions:
– Is this within my circle of competence?
– Is it a good business?
– Do I like management? (Operators, capital allocators, integrity)
– Is the stock screaming cheap?
• Don’t anchor on historical information/perceptions/stock prices
– Keep an open mind
– Actively seek out contrary opinions; find someone to be bearish
– Update your initial estimate of intrinsic value
– Erase historical prices from your mind
– Set buy and sell triggers
• Mental tricks
– Pretend like you don’t own it (Steinhardt going to cash)
– Sell a little bit and sleep on it

Investing Psycology

1.Projecting the Immediate Past Into the Distant Future

Driving while “looking into the rear-view mirror instead of through the windshield.”--- Warren Buffett

2.Herd-Like Behavior: A “social proof” phenomenon

From 1984 through 1995, the average stock mutual fund posted a yearly return of 12.3% (versus 15.4% for the S&P), yet the average investor in a stock mutual fund earned 6.3%. That means that over these 12 years, the average mutual fund investor would have made nearly twice as much money by simply buying and holding the average mutual fund, and nearly three times as much by buying and holding an S&P 500 index fund.
• Over the same period, the average bond mutual fund returned 9.7% annually, while the average investor in a bond mutual rose earned 8% annually
– A far narrower gap than equity funds
– Bond markets are not as susceptible to bubbles and crashes


3.Misunderstanding Randomness

• Which series of coin flips is more likely to be random:
OXXXXXOXOOXOOXOOXOOX
or
OOXOXXOOXXOOXOXXOXOX

4.Commitment/Consistency

• “A study done by a pair of Canadian psychologists uncovered something fascinating about people at the racetrack: Just after placing a bet, they are much more confident of their horse’s chances of winning than they are immediately before laying down that bet.
The reason for the dramatic change is…our nearly obsessive desire to be (and to appear) consistent with what we have already done. Once we have made a choice or taken a stand, we will encounter personal and interpersonal pressures to behave consistently with that
commitment. Those pressures will cause us to respond in ways thatjustify our earlier decision•

“I made a big mistake in not selling several of our larger holdings during The Great Bubble. If these stocks are fully priced now,you may wonder what I was thinking four years ago when their intrinsic value was lower and their prices far higher. So do I.”
– Warren Buffett,2003 Berkshire Hathaway annual report
5.Anchoring

1.Anchoring on purchase price
– “When I bought something at X and it went up to X and 1/8th, I sometimes stopped buying, perhaps hoping it would come back down. We’ve missed billions when I’ve gotten anchored. I cost us about $10 billion [by not buying enough Wal-Mart]. I set out to buy 100 million sharers, pre-split, at $23. We bought a little and it moved up a bit and I thought it might come back a bit – who knows? That thumb-sucking, the reluctance to pay a little more,cost us a lot.” -- Buffett
2.Anchoring on historical price (or typical price)
Refusal to buy a stock today because it was cheaper last year or has a high price per share (Infosys,Crisil,Bosch)
– Refusal to sell because it was higher in the past
3.Anchoring on historical perceptions
4.Anchoring on initial data/perceptions
5.Anchoring on meaningless numbers

6.Loss Aversion

People feel pain of loss twice as much as they derive pleasure from an equal gain

There is a complicating factor that makes the handling of investment mistakes more difficult. This is the ego in each of us. None of us likes to admit to himself that he has been wrong. If we have made a mistake in buying a stock but can sell the stock at a small profit, we have somehow lost any sense of having been foolish.
On the other hand, if we sell at a small loss we are quite unhappy about the whole matter. This reaction, while completely natural and normal, is probably one of the most dangerous in which we can indulge ourselves in the entire investment process. More money has probably been lost by investors holding a stock they really did not want until they could ‘at least come out even’ than from any other single reason. If to these actual losses are added the profits that might have been made through the proper reinvestment of these funds if such reinvestment had been made when the mistake was first realized, the cost of self-indulgence becomes truly tremendous
.”
.........Philip Fisher, Common Stocks and Uncommon Profits

Failing to Buy
– Status quo bias
– Regret aversion
– Choice paralysis
– Information overload
– Hope that stock will go down further (extrapolating recent past into the future; greed) or return to previous cheaper price (anchoring)
– Regret at not buying earlier (if stock has risen)
• Failing to Sell
– Status quo bias
– Regret aversion
– Information overload
– Endowment effect
– Vivid recent evidence (if stock has been rising)
– Don’t want to sell at a loss (if stock has been falling)
– If I didn’t own it, would I buy it? Or, If the stock dropped 25%, would I enthusiastically buy more?

Behavioral Finance:Overconfidence


Investors Psychology :Overconfidence

• 19% of people think they belong to the richest 1% of U.S. households
• 82% of people say they are in the top 30% of safe drivers
• 86% of my Harvard Business School classmates say they are better looking than their classmates
• 68% of lawyers in civil cases believe that their side will prevail
• Doctors consistently overestimate their ability to detect certain diseases
• 81% of new business owners think their business has at least a 70% chance of success, but only 39% think any business like theirs would be likely to succeed
• Graduate students were asked to estimate the time it would take them to finish their thesis under three scenarios: best case, expected, and worst case. The average guesses were 27.4 days, 33.9 days, and 48.6 days, respectively. The actual average turned out to be 55.5 days.
• Mutual fund managers, analysts, and business executives at a conference were asked to write down how much money they would have at retirement and how much the average person in the room would have. The average figures were $5 million and $2.6 million, respectively. The professor who asked the question said that, regardless of the audience, the ratio is always
approximately 2:1 • FSBO (for sale by owner)
• Homeowners overestimate the value of their home and their ability to market it properly, negotiate well, etc.


overconfidance Can lead to excessive portfolio concentration and/or trading

Behavioral Finance


cognitive errors influence investors and create stock market anomalies such as bubbles and crashes.
But are human flaws consistent and predictable such that they can be:
1) avoided and 2) exploited for profit?

Investing is not a game where the guy with the 160 IQ beats the guy with
the 130 IQ…Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the
temperament to control the urges that get other people into trouble in
investing.” -- Warren Buffett
Before making a investment decesion you must go through all listed Mental mistake as your checklist to sound investment.
Common Mental Mistakes
• Overconfidence
• Projecting the immediate past into the distant future
• Herd-like behavior (social proof), driven by a desire to be part of the crowd
• Misunderstanding randomness; seeing patterns that don’t exist
• Commitment and consistency bias
• Fear of change, resulting in a strong bias for the status quo
• “Anchoring” on irrelevant data
• Excessive aversion to loss
• Using mental accounting to treat some money (such as gambling winnings or an unexpected bonus) differently than other money
• Allowing emotional connections to over-ride reason
• Fear of uncertainty
• Embracing certainty (however irrelevant)
• Overestimating the likelihood of certain events based on very memorable data or experiences (vividness bias)
• Becoming paralyzed by information overload
• Failing to act due to an abundance of attractive options
• Fear of making an incorrect decision and feeling stupid (regret aversion)
• Ignoring important data points and focusing excessively on less important ones; drawing conclusions from a limited sample size
• Reluctance to admit mistakes
• After finding out whether or not an event occurred, overestimating the degree to which they would have predicted the correct outcome (hindsight bias)
• Failing to accurately assess their investment time horizon
• A tendency to seek only information that confirms their opinions or decisions
• Failing to recognize the large cumulative impact of small amounts over time
• Forgetting the powerful tendency of regression to the mean
• Confusing familiarity with knowledge
WE WILL DISCUSS ALL IN DETAIL NEXT POSTS

About Me

I am Mechanical engineer from IIT.In last few years i had developed deep passion for process of wealth creation and subsequently in Warren buffet , charlie munger and investment psychology.I am starting this blog to share/Discuss basic qualitative and quantitative analysis of Indian companies on Value basis.